Patriots at Colts Predictions: Points Spread, Total, Player Props, TV, Streaming for Rare Saturday Matchup


The New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts gear up for a rare Saturday night matchup on deck for Week 15. Both teams bid farewell and are in the midst of the AFC playoff race. For the Patriots, they sit as the number 1 seed in the conference, while Indy is the number 6 seed. Given the wafer-thin margins within the conference, a win here could go a long way toward securing their place in the playoffs.

Below we will look specifically at the different betting angles that this matchup has in store for us. We’ll be looking at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading up to Saturday night and of course we’ll give you our picks for this game, along with a handful of our favorite player props.

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch?

Date: Saturday December 18 | Time: 20:20 ET
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV:
NFL Network | Current: fuboTV (free trial)
To follow: CBS Sports App
Opportunities: Foals -2.5, O/U 45.5

Line movement

Last Chances:

Indianapolis Foals -2.5

New England opened as a 1-point road favorite in this head-to-head, but that advantage quickly began to fade as the game drew closer. Last Sunday it moved into a pick’em before swinging out completely towards the Colts, who were a 2-point favorite on Monday morning. That spread lasted all week.

the choice: Patriots +2. Not only are the Patriots coming into this game with a seven-game winning streak, but they’ve covered every one of those games. However, the Colts will be a tough challenge as they roll out Jonathan Taylor’s star. Stopping the run was a weakness for New England, but Bill Belichick has historically been able to take away an opponent’s best weapon on offense. If he does that with Taylor, it’s hard to imagine Carson Wentz leading the Colts to victory. Indy has also not done well at home with a score of 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Main trend: Patriots are 6-1 ATS after a bye week.

Over/Under total

The total opened at 43.5 but has risen quite a bit this week. It rose to 44 on Sunday night and then continued to climb to start the week and has since risen to 45.5.

the choice: Below 45.5. The bread and butter of both teams is offensive to lead the football. If they can effectively move the ball on the ground, that inherently lowers the scoring ceiling for this game. The Patriots are also one of the best teams in the NFL at keeping opponents out of the end zone. Once their opponents reach the red zone, New England will only allow them to score a touchdown on 25% of their trips in the last three games (best in the NFL).

Main trend: Under is 8-2 in Patriots’ last 10 road games.

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  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (more than +110, less than -140)
  • Passing yards: 226.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
  • interceptions: 0.5 (over -120, less than -110)
  • Achievements: 20.5 (over -125, less than -105)
  • Longest Transient Completion: 34.5 (Over -110, Under-120)

I lean towards the Under on Jones’ passing yards prop of 226.5 at even money. While he will likely throw more than three times, as he did against the Bills in Week 13, Jones hasn’t been asked to uncork a lot during this winning streak. Even excluding week 13, he’s only gone over this total twice in six games. Jones also ranks 24th out of 32 qualified quarterbacks against zone coverage this season. The Colts have drafted 72% of their defensive snaps in the zone this season, which is the eighth highest percentage in the NFL.

Carson Wentz props

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  • Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (over +130, less than -160)
  • Passing yards: 226.5 (Over -115, Under-115)
  • interceptions: 0.5 (more than -110, less than -120)
  • Longest Transient Completion: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
  • Rushing yards: 9.5 (over -125, less than -105)

The value isn’t fantastic at -160, but the Under 1.5 touchdowns for Wentz is a solid game. As we noted above, the Patriots were great at keeping teams out of the end zone. This season, New England has allowed the third fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL (15).

Player props to consider

Hunter Henry total yards received: over 25.5 (-120). Henry has become one of Jones’ go-to weapons and has a solid match-up for him with the Colts. This season, Indy will allow opposing tight ends to average 67.2 yards per game.

TY Hilton Total Recruits Received: Less than 29.5 (-115.)). The number is just too low for what we’ve seen from Hilton this season. He has only exceeded this total once (Week 6 vs. Houston) and has played about 50% of the offensive snaps in his games this season. One catch could burn us here, so proceed with caution, but there isn’t much Hilton has shown to suggest he will go here.